The transition to electric vehicles: Implications for public revenues and funding of roads

The increasing prevalence of electric vehicles (EVs) presents challenges for transportation budgets as traditional revenue sources such as fuel taxes decline. While implementing EV taxes as an alternative solution offers practicality, it may also potentially hinder the transition. To address this issue, we examine the impact of various EV tax options on the transition. A framework is developed to evaluate taxation options, and a discrete-choice adoption model is applied to quantitatively illustrate the transitional effects of three types of EV tax interventions implemented with different timings across five global jurisdictions.

At Empa's Automotive Powertrain Laboratory we aim to develop methods to characterize the operation of vehicles on the Swiss roads based on their technical specifications (size and power segment, powertrain technology) and their typical use (e.g. first/second- household vehicle). To this end, we have developed a machine-learning approach to segment vehicles (including 5 size classes, sports and multi-purpose vehicles) as well as a detailed energy consumption model for different vehicle types/powertrains. Our current focus is on developing an operational model based on vehicle tracking data. Combined, the above gives us a detailed understanding of the fleet, its operations and energy demand, which is crucial for, among many others, developing decarbonization strategies or operation-based taxation schemes.

Betsy Sandoval Guzman is a postdoctoral researcher at the Vehicle Systems group at Empa, where she is leading the development of an operational model for the Swiss vehicle fleet. She is a mechanical and electrical engineer from the University of Guadalajara, Mexico. She has extensive experience in collecting, analysing and modeling of operational and energy consumption data. Her research interests include big data, data analytics in energy consumption data, spatial-temporal techniques, and machine learning.

The Swiss Mobility Panel is a collaboration of the International Political Economy and Environmental Policy Group and the Institute for Transport Planning and Systems at the Institute of Science, Technology and Policy at ETH Zurich. The panel survey has been conducted since October 2020 and includes 4 Waves so far. In the upcoming survey experiment, we aim to investigate the policy preferences of the Swiss resident population on a new mileage tax for BEVs. More specifically, we run a conjoint analysis to assess how preferences for a future mileage tax for BEVs are shaped regarding (1) how the yearly travelled distance is measured and (2) how the tax rate is set. Further, we evaluate whether Swiss residents favour a tax cut for BEVs relative to ICEVs and how introducing such a mileage tax for BEVs changes consumers' intentions when buying a new car. We will summarize the aspects we are considering when planning this survey.

Alessio Levis is a PhD student in the International Political Economy and Environmental Politics group. The primary area of his research centres around the investigation of environmental attitudes, mobility behaviour, and the development of policy frameworks. He employs experimental inference techniques in large-N surveys conducted in Switzerland as well as various nations within the European Union.

Thomas Bernauer is a professor of political science at ETH Zurich. His research focuses on environmental policy and international trade issues, based on macro-level quantitative research, micro-level survey embedded experiments, and case study research and interaction with policy-makers and stakeholders.

The Swiss government has commissioned FEDRO to develop a concept to secure the long-term financing of transport infrastructure by 2030 at the latest. This talk will show why and will address main aspects of this concept:

• How the mineral oil tax (and possibly other transport levies) is to be supplemented or replaced by a mileage-based levy. What are the options? 
• Where are the opportunities and risks? The presentation will show the Swiss thoughts and ongoing work and dare a look into the future.

Roman Rosenfellner obtained a Master of Science in Economics at the University of Berne. After working for a large Swiss energy company and as a consultant in the field of economic research and policy, he joined the Federal Roads Office in 2013. There he was involved in the development of the National Highways and Agglomeration Traffic Fund, which was finally introduced in 2018. He then led various projects in the area of road financing and mobility pricing. Of particular note is the development of the concept for the replacement of mineral oil taxes in the context of decarbonization. Currently he is leading the development of feasibility studies for mobility pricing pilot projects in various regions of Switzerland.