E-Mobility versus Synfuels in economically developing nations’ road transport

The European Union (EU) has set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including the aim for a 55% reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. To achieve these targets, the EU plans to end new sales of internal combustion cars and vans by 2035, making way for electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewables. However, synthetic-fuel vehicles are also being considered as a scalable solution for achieving net-zero mobility, particularly in developing countries, where often second-hand internal combustion engine-powered (ICE) vehicles sales dominate and where ICE cars are likely still driven in the next decades. Synthetic fuels, produced from renewable sources, offer a potentially net-zero emissions cycle and have the advantage of utilizing existing refueling infrastructure. While the transition to battery-electric vehicles appears unambiguous in developed economies, the future of transport modes in developing countries remains uncertain.

This project aims to address the following research question: what role can battery electric vehicles or synthetic fuels play in decarbonizing passenger road transport (i.e. cars) in developing countries? With a specific focus on Africa, a system-dynamics numerical model will be developed to analyze the competition between electric vehicles and synthetic fuels, considering both existing vehicle stocks and new/used vehicle flows. Infrastructure development requirements for these technologies will also be assessed, including costs and feasibility. Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) models will be used to evaluate overall greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts associated with different fuel supply pathways and vehicle technologies. Additionally, the project will assess the effects of policy interventions on transitional pathways and projected outcomes.

The findings of this research will provide valuable insights for decision makers in the public and private sector in understanding the feasibility and attractiveness of commercial scale e-fuels compared with direct electrification for the transport sector in developing economies in Africa. The project will inform decision-making by considering factors such as ownership trends, vehicle purchasing behavior, infrastructure requirements, environmental impacts, and interconnections between the transport sector and the broader energy system.

Partner

• AMAG

Roadmap

01.2024 - 12.2027 (36 months)